What we learned last Christmas

This time last year, in the run up to Christmas 2008, I remember writing that there were only two mindsets among the CEO’s who lead our largest retailers and manufacturers.

The first mindset believed that the sky was falling in, and those people reacted accordingly.

These CEOs, manufacturers or retailers cut marketing spend and, where possible, lowered forward orders on their own or their supplier’s factories so they wouldn’t be left with significant working capital in inventory as the predicted sales decline materialised.

The CEO with the second mindset believed that we’d been through our high interest rate and fuel cost consumer recession in late 2007 and early 2008, and that the majority of working Australians and New Zealanders would continue to spend, albeit in different ways than previously.

This CEO led good companies through last Christmas/New Years trade with somewhere between good and spectacular results. The first CEO missed last Christmas/New Years spectacularly, and some closed their doors because of it.

In retailing in the Western economies, you never get a second bite at Christmas. Keep the faith, plan it well, implement it well and in some cases you make 40% of your annual profit in just six weeks.

So as we enter Christmas 2009, what’s the feel among our business leaders? Basically, nobody plans to miss Christmas 2009 and New Year 2010; no amount of interest rate increases, stagnant house prices, rising petrol prices or inclement weather will create a Grinch to steal this Christmas.

If you got it right last year you’ll do it even better this year. If you got it wrong, and still managed to keep your role as CEO, you aren’t going to miss out again, as the first quarter grilling you went through last year wasn’t a pleasant experience.

How do we know? Well, my company has many client service associates and field managers interacting with around 200 client companies, manufactures, retailers and service providers in and around shops across Australia and New Zealand. Our forward-booked hours in store are growing, the number and size of shopper promotions we’re being briefed on and signing off is up, and the type and number of in-store events is higher than last year already.

It’s only the 12th of October, but those of us who work to ensure that shoppers have a great time in store on any given day – retail staff, retailing marketing associates and manufacturing reps – now have a little Christmas spirit in our step.

And the nation will be in the spirit for a great Christmas by the time we reach 1 November. And we’ll shop and not really stop until mid-January 2010.

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In his role as CEO of CROSSMARK, Kevin Moore looks at the world of retailing from grocery to pharmacy, bottle shops to car dealers, corner store to department stores. In this insightful blog, Kevin covers retail news, ideas, companies and emerging opportunities in Australia, NZ, the US and Europe. His international career in sales and marketing has seen him responsible for business in over 40 countries, which has earned him grey hair and a wealth of expertise in international retailers and brands. CROSSMARK Asia Pacific is Australasia’s largest provider of retail marketing services, consulting to and servicing some of Australasia’s biggest retailers and manufacturers.