Jobs outlook weak for 2012 outside of health and mining sectors: ANZ

Unemployment could surpass 5.5% next year, ANZ says, as health and mining-related industries edge out the traditional creators of jobs.

ANZ senior economist Julie Toth says the sources of labour demand are narrowing, and this will likely continue through 2012 as enormous mining, engineering and infrastructure projects come through.

Toth’s analysis of the most recent official job figures shows that mining and related activity is now the main driver of growth in the Australian economy, rising 20.6% year on year and concentrated in Queensland and Western Australia.

Meanwhile, Australia’s growing, ageing and wealthy population will ensure continued employment growth in health services.

“Outside those two sectors, we’re struggling to see where jobs demand is going to come from in the next 12 months,” ANZ senior economist Julie Toth.

According to Toth, the sectors that have typically generated labour demand – retail, residential construction, finance, real estate and professional services – are looking “very flat”.

Australian Bureau of Statistics figures, released last week, showed 41,500 new jobs were generated in the November quarter, with mining jobs up 41,400 for the year and health jobs rising 55,000 annually.  

The figures revealed that employment grew in agriculture, manufacturing, wholesale trade, public administration and education during the three months to November 30.

By contrast, total employment fell in the construction sector, despite a shift from general building to civil engineering construction.

Furthermore, employment in retail, hospitality, transport, IT, finance, professional services and administrative services fell by 35,000.

But it’s not all bad news for retailers, however. Although jobs in bricks and mortar retail fell, there was a 40% surge in “non-store based” retail employment, to 19,200 people.

“This group is still relatively small (just 1.6% of all retail workers) but it is growing rapidly. This no doubt reflects the rise of internet-based retail shopping in Australia. The continuing growth of wholesale trade employment even as retail activity shrinks might also be pointing to the same trend,” Toth said in a report.

But Martin Nally, managing director of human resources services firm hranywahere, says although weak consumer confidence is limiting activity now, organisations will always need new talent, especially as baby boomers start to retire.

“People are looking cautiously at 2012, but there’s still a reasonable amount of activity and I think after a few stable months confidence will return,” Nally says.