What will Australia look like in 2020?

Australia’s demographics and economy will undergo some important changes over the next decade. Let’s look at what Australia will look like in 2020.

Who are we?

Currently, our population hovers around 21.4 million. By mid-2020, IBISWorld predicts the population will reach 25.7 million – growing by around 1.5% a year between now and then. At that time, for every 1,000 people of working age (16 to 64), there will be 548 dependants – up from 511 last year, but well under the high of 635 in 1971 – and yet 45.3% of those dependants in 2020 will be over 65, compared to 39.1% in 2009 and 21.5% in 1971.

The median age of Australia’s population is 36.7 years, and IBISWorld expects this to rise to 37.9 by 2020 (compared to 27.5 in 1971), with high immigration over the past decade slowing growth in the median age. Looking ahead, net migration to Australia will total around 2.5 million between now and mid-2020, eventually becoming the only form of population growth in this country as our ageing population and comparatively low fertility rate will cause the number of annual deaths to overtake the number of babies born, probably some time in the 2030s.

Currently, more boys are born each year than girls, and yet men are more likely to die than women. As a result, there were 101 females to every 100 males in 2008. However, the life expectancy of men is catching up to that of women, meaning that the proportion will narrow to 100.6 females to 100 males in 2020.

For the year ended June 2008, a record 287,500 babies were born in Australia as the fertility rate increased to 1.91 babies per women – rising for the fifth consecutive year and the highest result since 1994 – proving we have been in the grip of a “baby boom”. However, the natural increase in the population contributes just 40.5% of our annual population growth, compared to 59.5% from net overseas migration.

After numerous years of strong immigration, the weaker economy and rising unemployment have led the Government to curb the country’s migration program and may have prompted residents to make more conservative decisions about childbearing – slowing our rate of population growth for the next couple of years.

Where do we come from?

Australia can boast the highest percentage of foreign-born population in the world (24.6%), made up from a staggering 150 different ancestries. Canada has the second highest proportion, followed by the USA, Austria, Germany, Belgium, France, Sweden and Britain.

A staggering four million (20%) of us were born overseas, and the top 10 birthplaces were: UK and Ireland; New Zealand; Italy; former Yugoslavia; Vietnam; Greece; Germany; China; Hong Kong; and the Netherlands.

‘Australian’ is still the most common ethnic background, followed by English, Irish, Italian, German, Chinese and Scottish. Other significant groups in terms of numbers include Greeks, Lebanese, Indians, Vietnamese and Polish.

And while our overall ethnic composition is currently 69.88% Anglo-Celtic, 6.96% Southern European, 6.88% North and West European, 5.02% Eastern European (including Israelis/Jews), 2.72% North East Asian, 2.54% South East Asian, 2.46% West and North African, 1.55% Aboriginal/Torres Strait Islander, 1.31% South Asian, and 0.68% other, IBISWorld expects it will become increasingly Eurasian as the 21st century progresses.

How much do we work?

One notable trend we can expect to see between now and 2020 is the number of workers choosing to balance work with family commitments, as women as a proportion of the workforce increases from 45.1% to 46% in 2020. IBISWorld also expects the number of people working in part-time jobs to rise from 28.4% of workers to 33% by 2020.

And while the workforce participation rate will decline as the baby boomers continue retiring – half will be 65+ by 2020 – we can expect to see a higher proportion of those over 65 working into their twilight years, although for many that work will shift from full-time to part-time.

The growth in “grey power” will be good news for some industry sectors, said Mr Bryant, such as pathology, nursing and complementary therapies, including physiotherapy and chiropractic services, since the over-65s using healthcare facilities at four times the rate of the greater population. There may also be good news for those catering to retirees swapping business suits for swimsuits and moving to coastal communities, with retailers of trailers, caravans, mobile homes and marine equipment likely to prosper in the longer term, along with those developing leisure facilities, such as golf courses.

How’s our health?

Not surprisingly, we’re getting fatter, with one in four Australian adults now classified as obese, and incredibly, despite the intense publicity surrounding health conditions related to obesity, such as Type 2 diabetes and heart disease, by 2020 that number will have climbed to one in three.

As the population ages there will be an increase in medical conditions associated with ageing, such as cardiovascular disease, diabetes and osteoporosis, but all of these will be exacerbated by our rising level of obesity, which is particularly high among middle-aged people and the recently retired. It’s good news for the medical profession from a revenue point of view but a huge burden for the public system to bear.

Despite growing health issues, we are expected to live longer. In 2009, the average life expectancy for women is 83 years, compared to 77 years for men. In 2020, women are expected to live until 85, while men will live to approximately 80.

And by 2020, IBISWorld expects 4.12 million Australians will be over 65, which will represent 16% of the total population. Currently this demographic makes up 13.4% of the population.

How faithful are we?

To our partners, no-one really knows. To an organised religion, less and less seems to be the answer, with not only the number of Christians set to fall, but the number of people classifying themselves as “religious” in any fashion.

Key trends in terms of religion will be Anglicanism “bouncing back” to some extent, driven by growth in immigration from the sub-Saharan region, and a particularly significant rise in the number of followers of Islam as a direct result of booming Asian (Middle Eastern) immigration.

While growth in traditional western faiths will lag behind population growth, as the younger generation becomes increasingly cynical towards organised religion, with IBISWorld projecting the number of Buddhists will more than double from the 418,754 noted in 2006 census figures, to 866,464 by 2020; Hinduism will also double its followers from 148,127 to 366,898 and the number of Muslims will experience enormous growth from 340,389 to 1.055 million by 2020.