Cars, Apple & tech bubbles

What a busy morning for big entrepreneurial news. So big, I’m going to cast my eye over three stories and extract some lessons for entrepreneurs.

Here we go:

Carsales.com

This morning, private-equity backed Nine Entertainment flogged its 49.1% stake in Carsales.com for $562 million, formally exiting what has been one of the company’s best investments.

The proceeds of the sale will be used to reduce some of Nine’s $4 billion debt, but it is also likely to further delay the much talked about float of the business. Analysts say Nine needs to get its debt down to about $2 billion before investors will be interested, and that’s likely to take a bit of time.

This is the second high-profiled private equity-backed float to be pushed back in recent days, following a statement by Hoyts boss David Kirk that the float is now unlikely to happen in 2011.

The sluggish economy and sharemarket are clearly the key reasons, but I do wonder if private equity firms believe they will have an uphill battle getting investors interested in their cast-offs. After all, it’s only 12 months since private equity firm Pacific Equity Partners was talking about floating RedGroup Retail, which is now in administration. There may well be some trusts issues there.

Apple and Ruslan Kogan

One-man publicity machine Ruslan Kogan has done it again, challenging JB Hi-Fi chief Terry Smart to a $1 million bet that JB won’t be selling Apple hardware in three year’s time. He’s even drawn a contract for the wager.

Last week, Kogan claimed JB was “Apple’s bitch” because 30% of its sales were generated by Apple products. Terry Smart refuted the figure, but Kogan, who can be like a dog with a bone, wouldn’t back down.

Kogan’s claim is hard to believe in the face of Smart’s very flat denial. Exactly where the tech entrepreneur’s figures are coming from isn’t know. He says “substantial shareholders” gave him the data, but Smart has denied that too.

However, Kogan’s argument about what might happen if Apple pulled out – presumably to concentrate on its own retail network – is interesting.

Apple has given no signal that it wants to cut back on its re-seller network, but it is increasing its 301 store network at a rate of 40-50 stores a year, most of which are outside the US.

In a few years, if its store network grew at this rate or faster, it could be in a position to pull its products out of some retailers, particularly mass-market department stores.

Will it do so? No idea. But Apple does love controlling its products as much as possible (even now, repairs and servicing done under warranty must be done through an official Apple store) and this could be a path it eventually does go down.

However, it’s highly doubtful this would bring down a well-run company like JB, as Kogan appears to be suggesting.

For all Kogan’s bluster, he does think a lot about changing retail trends and models. And that’s something many retailers here have struggled to do in the last few decades.

Google’s buying spree

Finally, Google’s vice-president of corporate development, David Lawee, has said in an interview that the company is keen to continue aggressively pursuing acquisitions after buying a record 48 acquisitions.

More interestingly, Lawee says the sharp increase in Silicon Valley valuations are “high, but they reflect the real possibilities.”

According to The Australian, he said that “these are truly exciting times” for entrepreneurs.

Now, you might argue that Google would say that valuations aren’t too high after offering what appeared to be an over-the-top $6 billion for Groupon in late 2010.

But Lawee’s statement also suggests that he won’t be afraid to pay similar multiples for other companies, which could push tech asset prices even higher.

Is it a bubble or is it based as Lawee says on “real possibilities”?

It’s going to be fascinating to find out.