Australia is now subject to an El Niño climate event, the Bureau of Meteorology (BoM) says, boosting the likelihood of warmer and drier conditions than average in the coming months.
As the eastern states experience an unseasonable burst of hot weather, here is a brief explanation of what El Niño is, and what the nation can expect in the months ahead.
In its simplest form, El Niño refers to a cycle of warming ocean temperatures across the Pacific.
Trade winds blow warm water from east to west across the equator, but when those winds weaken or reverse, warm water can pool in the centre or east of the Pacific.
Those surface sea temperatures (SSTs) can have major consequences for global rainfall patterns.
“Overall, there are signs that the atmosphere is responding to the pattern of SSTs in the tropical Pacific and coupling of the ocean and atmosphere has started to occur,” the BoM said Tuesday.
Global warming, both through natural, decades-long shifts and “changes in large-scale circulation caused by an increase in greenhouse gas emissions,” is another contributing factor, the organisation added.
Warm, dry temperatures are on the cards, reflecting the inverse of La Niña, the climate event which brought cooler than average temperatures to much of Australia over the past three years.
“The long-range forecast for Australia indicates warmer and drier than average conditions are likely across most of southern and eastern Australia from October to December,” the BoM says.
El Niño events are associated with heatwaves, an increasing likelihood of drought conditions, and spiking bushfire risks.
The devastating Black Summer fires which occurred in the 2019/2020 summer period did not occur in El Niño conditions but followed an El Niño period in 2018/2019.
Like households across much of Australia, small businesses are now likely to endure sweltering heat through the summer period.
Last month, AFAC, the national council for fire services, revealed much of the east coast, stretching from Bairnsdale in Victoria through to Innisfail in Queensland, will face increased fire risks over the summer.
Much of the Queensland interior and stretches in NSW’s central and northern regions will face the same risks, along with most of the central Northern Territory, patches on the Victoria-South Australia border, and regions of the Nullarbor.
However, the fire risk is not projected to be quite so high as the Black Summer period, potentially sparing businesses and homeowners a re-do of those devastating blazes.
Extreme heat could deter visitors from seasonal tourism and hospitality hotspots, and heat-related disruptions to public transport can also keep customers and staff from attending the workplace.
Extreme heat also brings the risk of power outages through intense demand on the power grid, presenting risks to businesses trying to operate through the hottest parts of the day.
At the same time, NSW Health has advised those unable to stay cool at home to consider visiting air-conditioned venues like shopping centres, potentially providing a boost to traders operating in cool, enclosed environments.
Despite soaring costs, insurance remains a vital tool for small businesses to protect themselves against financial ruin in case of bushfire damage.
Running through power blackout plans can help businesses adapt to outages if and when they occur.
Businesses should also consult their standard fire plans, ensure fire alarm systems and fire equipment are well-maintained, and run through evacuation procedures.
Keeping copies of critical documents off-site can also help businesses recover in a worst-case scenario.
Fire & Rescue NSW has prepared a small business runsheet to help enterprises get started.
Providing staff with adequate PPE can help mitigate the worst risks of heat exposure, particularly for those who work in exposed environments.
Business Tasmania has prepared a helpful shortlist of steps small businesses can take to mitigate heatwave risks.
Senior Business Journalist
Focused on the small business sector, David’s work covers the political, regulatory, and economic issues facing Australian entrepreneurs. Prior to joining SmartCompany, he was a reporter for Business Insider Australia. You can follow him on LinkedIn.
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