Australia will initially run between three to five pre-loved Virginia Class nuclear-powered submarines imported from the United States starting from the early 2030s, ahead of a fully-fledged $368 billion tripartite deal to build eight new British-designed SSN-AUKUS subs in Adelaide by 2055.
As details of the massive strategic pact were played out from a joint press conference between US president Joe Biden, Australian prime minister Anthony Albanese and UK prime minister Rishi Sunak, the immediate cost of the program will be $9 billion over the next four years.
The US Congress still needs to approve the sale of boats to Australia.
The immediate spending priorities will be upgrading Perth’s naval facilities (circa $1 billion) to accommodate about four US subs and at least one UK boat that will deploy there to fill a regional capability gap ahead of the SSN-AUKUS boats becoming available.
Defence’s land bankers are also on the hunt for an Australian east coast submarine docking and maintenance facility in a bake-off that appears to be between Wollongong (Port Kembla), Newcastle and Brisbane, with the ‘Gong the firm favourite.
While Defence reportedly favours Wollongong because of its natural deepwater harbour, there is tepid local support for berthing nuclear-powered subs there thanks to an influx of sea-changers from Sydney snapping up comparatively affordable properties over the past 20 years.
Analysts regard Newcastle’s river approach as workable but imperfect, along with its existing heavy shipping traffic catering to bulk carriers, particularly coal exports.
Brisbane has a very strong shared naval history with the US dating back to the days of General Douglas MacArthur and the Pacific Fleet (think Pearl Harbour) but comes with the challenge of the notoriously shallow Moreton Bay, which is less than ideal for underwater systems.
So far the joint AUKUS subs announcement has stuck closely to its pre-leaked script, with both Biden and Albanese committing to the new SSN-AUKUS boats only being nuclear-powered and not nuclear-armed, with Biden emphasising a joint commitment to nuclear non-proliferation.
One notable element of the new more standardised SSN-AUKUS boats is that they will not only run US weapons systems, pretty much now a default standard post-Brexit, but also sealed US reactors for their powerplant. This is a departure from the British standard of Rolls-Royce.
This essentially means Australia will not need to immediately, nor in the medium term, develop a local nuclear industry to manufacture or assemble small reactors that in the case of US powerplants are designed by General Electric. The Virginia-Class subs were designed by General Electric Boat.
Australia’s bipartisan political support for the nuclear-powered submarine option is regarded as the clincher to making the deal a reality, though it is likely there will be some tussling over the industrial rewards that come with such a gargantuan spend.
President Biden for one is pushing the sovereign re-industrialisation push as a crucial economic driver in a world where the global economy is increasingly influenced by geopolitics.
“These past 18 months, we’ve developed a phased approach that’s going to make sure Australian sailors are fully trained to prepare to safely operate this fleet, so they can deliver this critical capacity on the fastest possible timetable,” Biden said.
“Each of our nations is making concrete commitments to one another. We’re backing it up with significant investments to strengthen industrial bases in each of our countries in order to build and support these boats. By the way, this partnership is going to mean an awful lot for good-paying jobs for all workers in our countries, including a lot of union jobs.”
“Our agreement unlocks a set of transformative opportunities for jobs and skills and research and innovation. In Adelaide and in Barrow-in-Furness. In Western Australia and here in the United States,” Albanese said.
“Opportunities that will shape and strengthen and grow Australia’s economy for decades and create around 20,000 direct jobs for Australians from many trades and specialisations. Engineers, scientists, technicians, submariners, administrators and tradespeople.
“Good jobs with good wages, working to ensure the stability and prosperity of our nation, our region and, indeed, our world.”
All taxpaying jobs, too. At $368 billion, Australia’s tax base will inevitably again be the focus on how the government raises the money to pay for the subs.
This article was first published by The Mandarin.
Julian Bajkowski is managing editor at The Mandarin.
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