Melbourne’s spring rain might be difficult to predict, and it’s hard to know if the RBA is going to keep rates on hold or not, but punters are in no doubt as to who will win the Melbourne Cup – Bart Cummings’ rising superstar, So You Think.
A flood of money for the stallion has come since Saturday – when he stormed to victory in the Mackinnon Stakes at Flemington – with the horse’s odds tightening from around $3.80 to $3.00 in morning betting.
Michael Horne, racing manager at bookmaker Betstar, says that while he has some reservations about So You Think running out the punishing 3200 metre trip, it’s hard to argue with the money that has come for the Cox Plate winner.
“We will be letting the punters back him, and of course we’re hoping that he doesn’t win, but it’s just impossible to tip against him,” Horne says.
Betstar has taken a steady stream of bets in the tens of thousands for So You Think at a price of $3.50, and also has one punter who had $5000 on So You Think to win the Cox Plate/Melbourne Cup double.
If Bart Cummings’ horse wins today, Betstar faces a payout of $85,000.
However, it faces even bigger payouts on the other spruik horse, Sydney galloper Maluckyday. This horse won the Lexus Stakes on Saturday to gain last-minute entry to the Cup, and has been steadily backed from $13 into $10.
One Betstar punter has placed $50,000 on Maluckyday to win half-a-million dollars.
“Punters have singled out two chances here in the Cup, and So You Think and Maluckyday have really been backed to the exclusion of all other runners.”
Horne says there has also been good money for Zipping and former French galloper Americain, but nominates $31 chance Monaco Counsel as his best roughie.
“He’s clearly the best value in the race. He ran a terrific third in the Caulfield Cup and as a rule that is the best guide to the Melbourne Cup. He also won the Victoria Derby at the track last year, so he knows how to get around Flemington.”
As SmartCompany highlighted yesterday, eight of the last 10 Melbourne Cups have been won by an owner on a rich list.
Using this as a guide, So You Think (owned by Malaysian entrepreneur Dato Tan Chin Nam) and Shocking (owned by hire company owner Laurence Eales) loom as the best chances.
For the record, SmartCompany also finds it hard to tip against So You Think, but will be looking to roughies such as Americain, Monaco Counsel and Once Were Wild for a bit of extra value.
Five Melbourne Cup betting tips
– The Caulfield Cup is generally the key form race, so look closely at the placegetters from that race.
– The horse that runs best out of the Mackinnon Stakes usually performs well.
– The internationals are always hard to get a handle on, but one always runs surprisingly well and can sneak a place.
– The winner of the Melbourne Cup is always in good form. Hoping a horse will suddenly turn poor form around is usually a recipe for losing money.
– While there are exceptions (and some very special ones), the Cup is often won by horses contesting it for the first time.
James was the editor and publisher of SmartCompany and LeadingCompany for five years. He is now the Australian Financial Review‘s companies & markets editor, and a former BRW editor.
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